Ahead of the primary elections scheduled for April 23–May 30, 2026, to nominate candidates for various elective offices, North-Central Bureau Chief ISAAC SHOBAYO, with reports from ABIOLA AZEEZ, JOHNSON BABAJIDE, and ALIYU HAMAGAM, x-rays the governorship race in the North-Central geopolitical zone, detailing efforts of second term governors to install successors and the re-election bids of the first term governors
THE recent political realignment and defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC), along with the declining influence of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has resulted in the APC gaining complete control of the North-Central. Almost every political figure in the geopolitical zone is currently a member of the party. With the 2027 general election approaching, keen political observers are waiting to see if these will translate into victory across the board.
Currently, three of the zone’s six governors are seeking re-election in 2027, while two are serving their second term. Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang of Plateau State, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia of Benue State, and Mohammad Umar Bago of Niger State are up for re-election, while Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State and his Kwara State counterpart, Abdulrazak Abudulrahman, are serving their second terms.
The off-circle election in Kogi State, where Governor Usman Ododo is in power, is scheduled for September 2027; therefore, political activity in relation to the state governorship race is yet to take off significantly.
Given that it has become a norm for the incumbent to be granted the option of first refusal, there are compelling signs that those seeking second term may not have any trouble in picking the ticket of APC.
The governors of Kwara and Nasarawa states, who are not running, are likewise not folding their arms for obvious political reasons.
Plateau State
In Plateau State the defection of the PDP bigwigs to the APC had made the latter a formidable platform to contest for election, particularly the governorship. The general impression was that the primary of the party is a done deal in favour of Governor Mutfwang, though Dr. Danyaro Sapiya and two other persons have shown interest.
The National Chairman of the APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwtda, has repeatedly asserted that the party ticket is uncontestable, while also stating that the 2027 election is equivalent to the APC contesting against itself.
One of the apparent facts of Plateau politics is that no governor has ever lost a second-term bid, particularly under this dispensation.
Senator Joshua Dariye, Jonah Jang, and Simon Lalong all won second terms despite efforts by some forces to stop them. There’s a clear indication that history is poised to repeat itself this time. The prevalent view is that opposition from other political parties will find it difficult to break the jinx, more so with the current state of the APC in the state coupled with the governor’s performance.
Analysts believe that if the governor could win convincingly in 2023, he will have a lot easier time winning in 2027 due to his switch to the APC, which has significant influence in the state. Furthermore, those who might have expressed interest in the APC have abandoned their aspirations. This could explain the dip in the political activity among other political parties.
The PDP, which may have offered a significant challenge to the governor’s second-term aspiration, is already decimated by the gale of defection of its bigwigs to the APC. The PDP condition in the state is further complicated by the ongoing crisis rocking the party at the national level. There’s also the fear that the party might not be on the ballot in 2027, hence the mass defection to the APC.
Other political parties, such as the ADC, ADP, and LP, may field candidates for governorship, but Mutfwang is undoubtedly in a strong position to win the election given the state’s current political setup. For this reason, most political parties are hesitant to field candidates.
Niger State
Niger State remains one of the few states in Nigeria that has consistently maintained a rotational governorship arrangement among its three senatorial zones. It is a political tradition that has continued to shape the state’s power dynamics since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
Zoning has been credited with fairness and political inclusion, but it is argued that it has gradually weakened competitiveness in the state’s political space, leaving opposition parties ineffective in challenging incumbent administrations.
The zoning pattern has remained remarkably consistent over the years. Between 1999 and 2007, the late Governor Abdulkadir Kure from Niger East (Zone A) governed the state for two terms. Power later shifted to Niger South (Zone B), where Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu held sway from 2007 to 2015.
Following the APC’s victory in 2015, the governorship moved to Niger North (Zone C) with the election of Abubakar Sani Bello, who served two terms until 2023.
In line with the rotational arrangement, power has now returned to Niger East with the emergence of Governor Umaru Mohammed Bago in 2023. However, speculation about the 2027 governorship election has begun to surface within political circles.
The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris Malagi, has recently been mentioned as a possible challenger to Governor Bago. Both the minister and the governor hail from the same senatorial zone, a factor that has fueled discussions about a potential political contest within the zone.
According to some pollsters, if Malagi eventually decided to enter the race, he could pose a formidable challenge, particularly in view of the declining popularity of the current administration.
Bago’s leadership style has drawn mixed reactions in some quarters.
Despite the growing speculation, however, the information minister has repeatedly dismissed reports suggesting he is nursing governorship ambitions.
Meanwhile, opposition political parties in Niger State including the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appear to be struggling to build the momentum needed to challenge the ruling APC ahead of the 2027 elections.
With opposition parties battling internal crises and the zoning arrangement continuing to shape political calculations, analysts say the road to the 2027 governorship election in Niger State may once again be largely defined by internal political alignments rather than open electoral competition.
Kwara State
As two terms of eight years of the Kwara State governor, Mallam Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq of the All Progressives Congress (APC), wind up, political discourse at picking his successor is currently thickened by high political calculation and strategies.
Judged by political activities before now, Governor Abdulrazaq and the APC leadership in the state prefer the next governorship candidate of the ruling party emerging from the Kwara North senatorial district based on equity and justice.
However, the decision to have a consensus candidate among the aspirants, who include the Senator representing the Kwara North senatorial district in the National Assembly, Sadiq Umar Sulyman; Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi Salihu; Hon. Haliru Dantsoho; Alhaji Tajudeen Audu; and Hon. Mahmud Hassan Babaku is yet to be concluded; this is just as the contenders had promised unity and brotherliness.
Meanwhile, the happenings in the Kwara North political arena had not stopped governorship aspirants from the other two senatorial districts of Kwara Central and Kwara South from showing their interest in contesting in the 2027 general elections.
It would be recalled that the APC state congress brought out a chairman from Kwara South in the person of Prince Sunday Fagbemi, a development in which political pundits said may have foreclosed governorship aspirants coming from the district. However, we still have in the 2027 governorship contest aspirants from the Kwara South district working to the APC ticket.
Some of them include the incumbent senator from the area, architect Lola Ashiru; professor Wale Sulaiman; engineer Sunday Babalola; Dr. Oluwatoyin Alabi; and a former APC state chairman, Hon. Bashir Bolarinwa (BOB).
Also from the Kwara Central senatorial district are Senator Saliu Mustapha and Professor Abubakar Sulaiman, while aspirants from opposition political parties in the district like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are already rearing to go.
Come 2027, the PDP appears not to be looking in the direction of Kwara North, as most of the emerging governorship aspirants are from Kwara Central. Some of them include a former speaker of the state House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Ali Ahmad. Ahmad, popularly called Ali Dodo among his supporters. He was also a member of the National Assembly.
Another PDP governorship aspirant is a retired executive director of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), Engineer Suleiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, whom many people believe could rub shoulders with old politicians in the race, especially with his strong support base.
Others are the PDP national legal adviser, Kamaldeen Ajibade (SAN), as well as a grassroots politician, Ladi Hassan, and a son of the veteran diplomat, Omar Bolaji Gambari.
In the ADC are a former National Assembly legislator, Moshood Mustapha, popularly called MM, and a United States university lecturer, Dr. Abdulmumin Ajia.
Though the governor has not formally endorsed any of the aspirants, there are strong indications that the incumbent governor is keeping his preferred person to his chest and may unwrap him soon.
Benue State
As the 2027 general elections draw nearer, all existing political parties in Benue State are putting all necessary arrangements in place to meet up with the Independent National Electoral Commission deadline to pick their flagbearer, particularly for the governorship election.
Several aspirants have declared their interest to slug it out with the incumbent governor, Hyacinth Alia, ahead of the governorship race in 2027. Among them are the former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice during Shehu Yar’Adua’s administration, Michael Andoaka; a renowned legal luminary, Professor Sebastine Hon; Engineer Peter Ato; and Professor Terhemba Shija, among others.
With the arrays of personalities jostling for the state’s most exalted seat come 2027, political observers in the state argued that the incumbent governor could have had a smooth sail, but with the internal crisis rocking the ruling All Progressive Congress in the state, Alia may face a tough ride.
Governor Alia ought to be ahead of other aspirants in the forthcoming governorship election if performances are the only indices to win the 2027 governorship election. There is no doubt about the fact that Governor Alia has dwarfed his predecessors in office with the number of infrastructural developments completed and ongoing across the state.
His close to three years in office have reshaped the map of Benue State, particularly the capital city, which for the first time could boast of being a state capital.
But the anti-Alia group may argue that his performance may not be commensurate with the resources available to his administration, but the fact remains that the capital city is wearing a new look that could make a visitor who had long visited the state miss his way around the capital city.
Despite this outstanding performance, the priest-turned-politician may have it tough to be re-elected due to the manner he is handling the party affairs and governance.
Nasarawa State
The rising cloud over Nasarawa State’s politics is getting apparent by the day. Despite the incumbent governor’s continued reticence on his succession strategy, those who want to contest from the three senatorial zones in the state have started launching out.
They have intensified consultations across the 13 local government areas of the state.
Some of the notable contenders across party lines are Senator Aliyu Wadada, Dr. Musa Ahmed Mohamed, former Minister of Environment Barrister Mohammed Hassan Abdullahi, David Emmanuel Ombugadu, Professor Mohammed Haruna, Dr. Faisal Shuaibu, Shehu Tukur, an architect, Abu Giza, and Mohammad Maikaya.
Since the governor continues to keep his preferred candidate under wraps, those who want to contest the election have beaten all odds to run for the state’s top position. Based on the prevailing situation, it is obvious that the primary will be hotly contested, likewise the governorship election next year.
Political watchers dismissed Governor Sule’s position that he is indifferent to who succeeds him in 2027. They swiftly pointed out that it is uncommon in Nigerian politics to witness a governor with his eyes closed when an election is being conducted. According to the observers, Sule was anointed by some political godfathers and hence cannot afford to stand aloof while the choice of his successor is being dictated by someone else.
Recall that Adamu had endorsed the late Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma in 2007, while Senator Tanko Al-Makura endorsed Sule in 2019. Analysts said that Sule is simply holding the card to his chest, a position they claimed is dangerous and might end up heating up the polity. However, no matter his stance as far as the 2027 governorship election is concerned in Nasarawa State, Sule is a critical figure whose position would significantly shake the outcome of the governorship ticket and the proper election.
There are indications that the All Progressive Congress is a party to beat in the governorship race; most of the political gladiators who gave the party a lifeline and strong foundation remain in the party despite all efforts and entreaties to lure them to join the APC.
So the APC’s primary election will undoubtedly be competitive looking at the caliber of those who want to contest on the platform of the party.
The roll call of governors since 1999 depicted that after Senator Adamu from the West left in 2007, the late Aliyu Doma came from Nasarawa South; he served one term, and Al-Makura from Nasarawa South served as governor until 2019 before handing over to the incumbent governor from Nasarawa North.
Though there are kingmakers in the state who may disagree with the governor on the best candidate for the state, Governor Sule, as the number one citizen, has the opportunity and advantage to pick his successor, despite the influence of some political godfathers who may want to override his choice.
However, all those who have either directly or indirectly signified their intentions to run are equally allies of the governor. Also, Musa Ahmed Mohammed, the accountant general of the state, is rumored to be pursuing the top spot in the government, but he has consistently denied harboring such ambition.
Meanwhile, as the primary and 2027 elections approach, the APC may enjoy a smooth ride in the long run, but if the opposition recalibrates, there might be few surprises.